Whereas the bitcoin halving shouldn’t be anticipated till March 13, 2024 in response to Coinwarz knowledge, Litecoin traders can sit up for the historically bullish occasion as early as this yr. Based on NiceHash estimate, the Litecoin halving will occur in 189 days, on July 19, 2023.

The upcoming halving has prompted analyst Rekt Capital to look at Litecoin’s historic value motion earlier than and after the halving to supply a forecast for the approaching months.

285% Litecoin Rally in sight?

Rekt Capital notes that LTC tends to rally fairly strongly forward of the halving. Earlier than the 1 halving, the value made its backside in 122 days and rose by +820% after that. Earlier than halving 2, LTC bottomed in 243 days and surged 550%.

After each halvings, nonetheless, the value positive factors had been even stronger. Because the chart beneath from Rekt Capital reveals, Litecoin is up +14,200% after the primary halving, and it was “nonetheless” up 1,574% after the second halving. From this, the analyst derives the historic tendency that LTC tends to recuperate extra after the halving than earlier than.

Litecoin value after halving | Supply: Twitter @rektcapital

Nonetheless, that does not imply that investing forward of the halving is not traditionally profitable when you discover the appropriate time to put a sell order. Based on the analyst, historic knowledge reveals that LTC sees a robust rally forward of the halving, earlier than the value instantly falls sharply.

Litecoin value declined -73% within the first 578 days after the halving. The second halving noticed the value drop as a lot as -83% earlier than discovering its backside after 458 days. “Because of this, it is very important perceive when a pre-halving LTC rally is trending higher,” says the analyst.

Because the chart beneath reveals, LTC peaked 31 days earlier than the occasion the primary time and 61 days earlier than the second time. Assuming this development continues, the LTC rally may cease as early as 92 days earlier than the halving – which, in response to Rekt Capital, could be in Might 2023.

Litecoin value earlier than halving | Supply: Twitter @rektcapital

Nonetheless, the rally may finish as early as April if the times double. It’s due to this fact additionally attention-grabbing to query how lengthy the rallies lasted. The primary rally earlier than the LTC halving lasted simply 90 days, whereas the second stored traders excited for a great 180 days. Due to this fact, the analyst concludes:

It appears just like the rallies forward of the $LTC halving will likely be lengthening over time. If this upcoming LTC pre-halving rally lasts twice so long as the earlier PH rally, then that rally will final ~three hundred and sixty five days. This finds confluence with a Might 2023 high.

When it comes to how a lot LTC value may rally within the months main as much as the halving, the analyst believes the rally may propel the value as a lot as 285% from its backside. Such a rally would imply that LTC has already made some pre-halving positive factors and will push into the $115 zone.

That is additionally the purpose at which the pre-halving rally of 2019 peaked. LTC additionally briefly held assist at this level after its 2021 bull market high to type the macro downtrend.

Litecoin halving rally | Supply: Twitter @rektcapital

What occurs after the halving?

After the halving, LTC may face a robust retracement primarily based on historic traits earlier than beginning an accumulation section. The lows in each instances had been higher lows in comparison with the pre-halving low. This might imply that LTC will fall between 72% and 77%.

The secret is to “search for a deep post-halving retracement adopted by a protracted consolidation in a roughly 70% vary,” the analyst defined. Based on the (nonetheless brief) historical past, the breakout from the buildup section may happen after at the least 400 days after the July 2023 halving. In conclusion, Rekt Capital says:

This is able to coincide with an LTC breakout in July 2024. This is able to make sense as this #LTC breakout would happen after the Bitcoin halving in 2024: it might additionally coincide with BTC’s common development reversal that happens on a typical candle 4 within the four-year cycle.

At press time, LTC value is up 1.5% within the final 24 hours and is trading at $82.43.

Litecoin is up 1.5% (24hrs) | Supply: LTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured picture by Michael Fortsch/Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com