A quant has identified the similarities between the 2017 and 2021 Bitcoin cycles, which may trace at how the remainder of this bear market would possibly play out.
In each 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin cycles made new lows across the 365-day mark for the reason that peak
As one analyst defined in a CryptoQuant put up, the 2 cycles are extra comparable than one would possibly anticipate.
The related indicator right here is the Drawdown from ATH, which measures the share decline in Bitcoin worth after the all-time high in every cycle.
Here’s a chart exhibiting the development of this metric for the 2017 and 2021 cycles:
It seems to be like the present cycle hasn’t gone as deep because the earlier | Supply: CryptoQuant
Within the chart above, the start line for the 2017 Bitcoin Cycle drawdown is in December 2017, when it hit the all-time high of the interval.
After this peak, the crypto’s worth plummeted till across the ATH’s drawdown reached someplace between 65-70%.
After hitting these drawdown ranges, the worth began to stabilize and traded sideways for about 110 days.
However then, in November 2018, the value of Bitcoin out of the blue collapsed and continued to say no till the underside was reached about 12 months after the ATH.
As for the present 2021 cycle, the highest shaped final November and since then the worth has been falling. The chart exhibits the trail this drawdown has taken to this point.
Though the decline within the two cycles isn’t precisely the identical, there may be nonetheless a putting similarity between them.
Identical to the earlier cycle, Bitcoin plummeted sharply after the highest till the drawdown from the ATH reached a 70% level.
The crypto’s worth then consolidated much like the earlier cycle, after which BTC made a brand new low across the 365-day mark after collapsing in a way much like the November 2018 crash.
To date this cycle is much like the earlier one, however it’s unsure in the meanwhile whether or not or not it is going to proceed like this in the remainder of the bear.
If it does certainly comply with an identical development from right here on out, then the quant believes there can be one other 100 days of sideways motion (the place the cycle backside will type) earlier than the bear ends.
BTC worth
On the time of writing, the worth of Bitcoin is hovering round $16.5k, down 20% during the last week.
The value of the crypto appears to have been transferring sideways these days | Supply: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured picture by Jonathan Borba on Unsplash.com, charts by TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com